Back Slovakia to earn a fourth draw in seven encounters with Russia , odds and tips
Russia face Slovakia at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in the second round of fixtures in Euro 2016 Group B trading as bet365’s 13/10 favourites to secure their first victory of the competition finals.
In many respects these odds look short.
After all, Leonid Slutsky’s side needed to rely on a last-minute Vassili Berezutski strike in order to salvage a 1-1 draw against England in their opener in Marseille last Saturday and they have now failed to win in each of their last four matches in all formats (D2-L2).
Indeed, Russia’s hopes of going deep into the Euro 2016 Finals draw were severely damaged by the injuries sustained by CSKA Moscow midfielder, Alan Dzagoev, and former Chelsea fullback, Yuri Zhirkov, in the month leading up to the tournament and it cannot be overlooked that they exited the Brazil World Cup in the group phase, just as they have in three of their last four European Championship Finals appearances.
The value represented by odds of 13/5 on an underdog victory or 11/5 on a draw are enhanced when one accounts for the strength of Slovakia’s qualification campaign.
Jan Kozak’s team posted a hugely impressive W7-D1-L2 record in order to secure automatic qualification to France as runners-up to Spain (a team who they beat) in a strong Group B and a solid home friendly draw against Northern Ireland two weeks ago means that they have now won 17 and lost just four of their last 25 matches in all formats dating back as far as the end of 2014 World Cup qualifying in November 2013.
Furthermore, Slovakia beat sides of the calibre of Switzerland, Iceland and Germany in warming up for their first European Championship Finals since ceding Czechoslovakia and they have only lost three of their last eight encounters with Russia (W2-D3).
That said, Kozak’s team were beaten 2-1 against Wales in their Group B opener last weekend and they have lost each of their last two matches against Russia by a goal to nil: at home in Euro 2012 qualifying and away in a 2014 friendly.
Additionally, Russia’s form has been consistently strong since Slutsky succeeded Fabio Capello as coach last August. They recovered from a W2-D2-L2 through the course of their first six matches in Euro qualifying by winning each of their last four group games by an aggregate of 12-1 under Slutsky in order to secure automatic qualification to the Euro finals behind Austria and ahead of Sweden.
Tip
Three of these sides’ last six encounters have ended level (two Russian wins, one for Slovakia) and all of those matches swung under 2.5 goals.
My money is on a draw at -2.5 goals at 13/5; Russia were extremely fortunate to salvage a draw against England on matchday one and offered little attacking threat of any note.
Zenit forward Artem Dzyuba attracts as an 8/5 anytime scorer bet having scored eight goals in helping Russia to secure a Finals spot in France as the third highest goalscorer in qualifying. Napoli playmaker, Marek Hamsik, meantime, is a 13/5 anytime option for Slovakia.
