Back Berdych to edge out Goffin in three in Rome
Eighth seed Tomas Berdych faces twelfth seed David Goffin in the third round of the Rome Open priced as bet365’s 1/2 favourite to progress.
In many respects these odds look short.
After all, Goffin’s second round defeat of Jack Sock marked the occasion of his 23rdvictory in 32 matches in 2016; the Belgian is W5-L3 on clay and followed up a last 16 berth at the Australian Open in January with consecutive Masters semi-finalappearances at Indian Wells and Miami across March and April.
Indeed, Goffin has been on consistently strong form for two seasons now. The Belgian won 38 of the 63 matches that he played in 2015 and 69 of the 90 matches that he played in 2014 and this form has catapulted the Belgian from world No.111 on 1 January, 2014, to the top-15 by the end of last season.
It also has to be acknowledged that Goffin has featured in five ATP Tour level finalsover the past two years, winning twice at Kitzbuhel and Metz in 2014.
Still, he did lose his second match in succession against Berdych in the quarter-final of the Marseille Open in February, affording the Czech at 2-0 head to head advantage, and Berdych comes into this match on strong form.
The 30-year-old is 19-9 for the season; he has reached two quarter-finals and two semi-finals in his last five starts in Rome and has reached two semi-finals and four quarter-finals in seven ATP Tour starts in 2016.
Tip
Berdych possess a clear edge on Goffin on clay and I see the Czech progressing; however, the fact that four of Goffin’s last five matches have gone the distance makes backing Berdych to win in three appeal as a 3/1 shot. A tie-break trades 6/5.
